The Great Salt Puddles
The Great Salt Puddles
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"Oh, hell, it's been dry before. It was dry when I was a two year old, and then I drove the Willeys jeep across Farmington Bay to Antelope Island in 1963."
--Uncle Stan (painting by Scott Brough)
Great Salt Lake in its death throes
Great Salt Lake in its death throes
I'm using Uncle Stan as an avatar for the extremely common expression of confidence in the cyclical nature of weather patterns and lake elevation. However, the data show that something else is going on, and this time is different. This time there isn't a natural recovery cycle without forty years of above average wet winters. This time, the lake cannot recover on its own. We are witnessing the death throes of the Great Salt Lake in real time.
Multiple high-probability models predict puddles where a Great Salt Lake used to be... by 2034
Why is the GSL elevation crashing?
pre-1847: Natural oscillation—healthy rhythm
After 1890: Diversions begin with Bear River, then Bear Lake—GSL enters managed decline
Post-1980: System lost resilience—rate of decline accelerates
2022 proof point: Lake drops BELOW equilibrium—permanently operating in deficit
Over a century of engineered water diversions have removed GSL's inherent resiliency
The overall water budget can be evaluated piecemeal by what goes in now vs. what used to...
Inflows diminishing as snowpack levels fall and diversions hold back more
1980–2000: 300–500 kAF/yr deficit
2000–2024: 700–1,100 kAF/yr deficit
Critical trajectory: 1–3 years to sub-critical depth (<4,190 ft)
1980 highlights a tipping point where climate dominates lake volume with forced, damped harmonic oscillations. This obvious cyclic decline can be analyzed by standard signal processing techniques to provide a glimpse into the future leading up to the 2034 olympics.
1980 highlights a tipping point where climate dominates lake volume with forced, damped harmonic oscillations. This obvious cyclic decline can be analyzed by standard signal processing techniques to provide a glimpse into the future leading up to the 2034 olympics.
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