Buying out farmer's unused water rights: Ok. Does that mean there was actual water associated with the rights (in a drought?) If it's on paper, it doesn't mean it is actually wet, and it doesn't mean that the water is accessible to be diverted to the Lake.
Compensating the farmers for their lost livelihoods: Be very careful of the assumption that "this is just a passing phase", and "it has gone dry before so it will recover". If this drought is different (and the data suggest it is – read on below) then the compensation for the loss is a bullet fired once and should be considered as a farmer's RIF (reduction in force) measly severance package.
Dr. Tadeusz Patzek used to work for the petroleum institute and has written a definitive treatise on climate change. importantly, he has identified the key event corresponding to the 1977 onset of a new PDO phase and the GSL forced, damped oscillation: a global climate re-organization resulting in accelerated warming on land versus the ocean.
Conservation of consumptive use (farms, gardens, lawns, golf courses) weakens and disrupts the water cycle, removing more area from the transpiration and evaporation sources. This is a leading cause of aridification. It is surrender to a downward spiraling cycle making the area ever more miserable to live in. It expands the source of dust storms to immediate locations surrounding cities and neighborhoods. Lawns are ok to brown–they can recover. What about trees?
Agriculture is the unseen, un-noticed, natural shock absorber for droughts. It's simple: when the ditches are dry, fields go unwatered, crops go un-planted. Green alfalfa fields and crop circles seen from the freeway are more likely watered from pumped wells.
Some agricultural water is diverted from streams to canals and fields. Some of this water, left undiverted, can proceed in the streambed. However if the snowpack and the runoff fall short, there is no water available in the stream for any use.
Wasatch Front water users do not commonly realize that ~15% of our water comes from the Colorado River via diversions from the Duschesne River. If the federal government dictates Colorado River cutbacks, the CUP could dry up immediately.
When communities dictate cutbacks, the population does not often go along willingly. After the bullet is fired, the demand is hardened.
Conservation is the race against Western Aridification, necessary to stabilize Great Salt Lake around 4193', preventing it from complete desiccation as temperatures rise. But it cannot restore Great Salt Lake, bringing it back to a stable and healthy 4207' elevation. Only the latter will produce the life-giving benefits we are looking for: a strong water cycle feedback with desirable evaporation leading to precipitation; the resulting strengthening of watershed ecosystems and resilience against overgrazing, variable drought, fire.
Restoration requres new water. There is no new water without abundant, cheap, point-of-use power.
That's a bold set of statements. Let's back it up. First let's look at Great Salt Lake in three dimensions (volume) versus simply as the elevation. Then we'll look at the Colorado River Basin (CORB), then at watersheds, generally.
Then we'll look at the principles by which we might conserve, given our patient is in the Emergency Room needing life support.
The below figure translates the familiar GSL elevation decline into the annual change in volume, equivalent to the mathematical derivative of the lake volume time series. The annual deltaV plot provides an alarming finding: prior to ~1977, the lake responds slowly and minimally to the precipitation patterns, always "recovering" from drought cycles such as 1930's and 1960's, which barely register as a blip, compared to what happens after 1977. In signal processing terms, the historic, healthy lake acts as a high frequency filter, modulating the weather variability to an overall equilibrium state, more or less. GSL is resilient, historically. It bounces back.
The alarming trend post-1977 tells quite a different story. In signal processing terms, it is the fingerprint of an externally forced, damped oscillator, more familiar in the steadying of the bouncing weight on a spring or the dying ringing of a bell.
This asymptotic decline of the periodic envelope tells two stories: (1) the GSL's dead intrinsic resilience (or in other words: its structural failure in its ability to filter external signals). It is now entirely subject to external effects such as water management decisions and external climate effects such as warming, drying... ...and (2) something that is causing the periodic signal.
This is another compelling graph, with its diving supply and ever more voracious demand. It is tempting to look at the bend in the demand curve around 2005 onward as a conservation success story (See that! we are not using as much) when in fact, it mostly represents the inability to deliver the water that it customarily did. This breaking point represents a dead Colorado River estuary and its inability to support millions of migratory birds. It represents bankrupt farmers in the Yuma , Imperial and Mexicali valleys, source of over 90% of America's winter vegetables. It represents cutting the delivery of water to thirsty Phoenix and Tucson in half. It represenst desperate efforts to further mine already depleted groundwater sources that are finite in nature. This is the very essence of the commonly heard term, unsustainability, further manifest in the weekly news feeds describing near deadpool status of Lakes Mead and Powell. It portends water shortages and power outages affecting the Colorado River Basin's 40 million supported people.
U of U Botanist Walter Cottam delivered a centenniel address in 1947 contemplating the effects of Utah's settlers on the once rich ecology within Utah. The first few pages are filled with eyewitness reports quite the opposite of the dead, sagebrush filled valleys of our imagination that only we, the settlers, could make blossom like a rose. Instead, the mountains were full of slow streams dammed by multitudes of beaver colonies, saturating the ground with moisture that makes for strong, fire-resilient forests and slow water movement whereby mountain snowpack and precipitation descend lazily to the lakes through surface and groundwater paths. Cottam offers many quotes describing the streams descending from the Wasatch foothills into fresh, grassy depressions surrounded by then-dry level areas of healthy bunchgrass. More descriptions follow of lush, green valleys (including Tooele, Mountain Meadows, Pleasant Valley (near the Utah/Nevada border) that are now barren.
Cottam's prescient treatise, entitled "Is Utah Sahara Bound?" forces us to contend with the realization that the trappers and settlers destroyed our mountain watersheds. The destruction of the Beaver colonies sped the water on its way downhill before it could benefit the mountain valleys. Cottam continually points to sheep overgrazing for denuding the mountain landscapes of the vegetation and root systems that break up, aerate, and condition soil to reduce compaction, increase porosity, and enhance the soil's capacity to absorb moisture. Wildfire and drought compact the unprotected soil, rendering it hydrophobic. Historical floods from the overgrazed mountains killed people and destroyed communities in the early 1900's, leading to the protection of these delicate slopes and even the CCC intervention in some cases (Davis County's Farmington Canyon) to sculpt the mountainside in attempts to prevent future flash floods.
Our watersheds have not recovered. It is not a new concept that vast western immigration, water diversion and irrigation was a terrible idea for the amount of water available. Marc Reisner's Cadillac Desert (Viking Press, 1986) has a very readable account of John Wesley Powell's Colorado River expedition and his conviction against the massively overallocated "development" of water resources; and even a particular modern reservoir the very name of which makes him turn in his grave.